Well, on my car, the speedo follows the speed of the drivetrain and rear wheels during times of "limited traction".

I'd be surprised if the autobox speed sensor was used as it'd have to communicate the speed via CAN to the ABS ECU and then there's the diff ratio which would have to be coded into one of the ECUs. More likely to use a combination of ABS wheel sensor inputs IMHO.
I think the ABS ECU will still generate a speed signal with failed sensors. As long as it's getting a signal from somewhere. So, agreed - the most likely cause is a failed ABS ECU.